By Vince Ferrara / @VinceSports
Each week, I share my predictions and info on SEC football games.
Below is broadcast info and analysis for Week 11 in the SEC.
These are straight-up winners only. The point spread is just as a barometer for how big of a favorite or underdog each team is.
Last week was my 4th straight undefeated week of predictions. I’ve predicted 23 straight SEC winners correctly. The last missed pick was the Auburn win over LSU on Halloween.
I’m 6-1 in predicting the Vols this season. My one miss was the shocking Kentucky home blowout loss for UT.
2020 SEC Week 10 Game Prediction Record: 6-0 (100%)
2020 SEC Season Prediction Record: 46-9 (85%)
2019 SEC Game Prediction Record: 103-20 (84%)
SEC WEEK 11 – RARE DECEMBER SCHEDULE OPENS IN SEC
SATURDAY, December 5
Arkansas (3-5, 3-5 SEC) at Missouri (4-3, 4-3 SEC)
12 p.m. ET • SEC Network
Columbia, Mo. • Faurot Field (62,621)
Series: MIZ leads, 8-3
Last: MIZ, 24-14 (2019 in Fayetteville)
Sirius: 137 • XM: 380/190
Point Spread: Missouri -3
Vince’s View: I’ve been leaning on going with a Razorbacks upset win on the road, but Mizzou has won four straight in the series and Tigers QB Connor Bazelak has been so solid (no INTs at home, 70% completion on the season) that I have to go Missouri’s way. Arkansas RB Rakeem Boyd opting out hurts the weapons available for Feleipe Franks, who’s had a solid season as well (68% completion) as the veteran Arkansas QB. Even though the schedule hasn’t played out as tough as looked entering the season for Mizzou, but what this team has done is impressive.
Score Prediction: Missouri 27 Arkansas 26
#5 Texas A&M (6-1, 6-1 SEC) at Auburn (5-3, 5-3 SEC)
12 p.m. ET • ESPN
Auburn, Ala. • Jordan-Hare Stadium (87,451)
Series: Tied, 5-5
Last: AU, 28-20 (2019 in College Station)
Sirius: 106/98 • XM: 191/192
Point Spread: Texas A&M -5 ½
Vince’s View: The Aggies offense left something to be desired against LSU last week. Kellen Mond’s inconsistency is why I don’t trust the Aggies as the biggest SEC playoff threat after Alabama. I think that’s Florida. The Aggies are best when they run the ball with talented tailback Isaiah Spiller. Auburn has had big issues stopping the run. The Tigers tend to be sleepy in Noon games as well.
Score Prediction: Texas A&M 31 Auburn 17
#6 Florida (7-1, 7-1 SEC) at Tennessee (2-5, 2-5 SEC)
3:30 p.m. ET • CBS
Knoxville, Tenn. • Neyland Stadium (102,455)
Series: UF leads, 29-20
Last: UF, 34-3 (2019 in Gainesville)
Sirius: 81/106 • XM: 81/191
Point Spread: Florida -17 ½
Vince’s View: Florida is not perfect. Tennessee has not been void of positive moments. Those moments have been in the first half only the last 5 games as UT has been outscored 108-14 in the second half during this losing streak. However, it is hard to imagine UT keeping up with UF offensively. If Dan Mullen can keep adding points and pile up stats for Kyle Trask’s Heisman hopes, I’d expect he’d keep doing that.
Yes, Eric Gray has run the ball well the last two weeks for Tennessee, but the Vols can’t turn those yards into points. Tennessee has the league’s worst 3rd down conversion margin in the league, by far, at -18%. So, who slows down TE Kyle Pitts from Florida on that Vols defense that has coverage busts and can’t pressure the quarterback? UT also has a huge issue with opponents making in-game and halftime adjustments and UT having no counters. Plus, if UF jumps out big, UT will either have to abandon the run or they will just keep running to keep the margin of victory down and/or protect the quarterback.
Our Jimmy Hyams reported that Jarrett Guarantano was the Vols QB that was in quarantine last week and this week, but he is back and available. Will Pruitt start him with little to no practice time over the fans’ choice, true freshman QB Harrison Bailey? Even if it is Bailey, we don’t know what to expect from him, so it’s hard to think he’ll be spectacular and upset the #6 team in the country.
On top of all the matchup and personnel issues for the Vols in this matchup, are the ugly numbers under Jeremy Pruitt, especially in big rivalry games. The first two Pruitt vs. Mullen meetings were 47-21 and last season’s previous rock bottom under Pruitt in Gainesville 34-3. Pruitt is 0-8 vs. Florida, Georgia and Alabama. The average score against those big three rivals has been 43-15. 12 of Jeremy Pruitt’s 17 losses have been by 21 points or more. Oh, and beyond Pruitt, the Gators have won 14 of the last 15 games in the series. There are more less than stellar stats, but we’ll spare you.
Those that were excited for a December matchup with the Gators in Knoxville because of the cold or chance for snow that the warm weather rivals would have to deal with, are only getting cool temps and colder hopes of an upset.
Score Prediction: Florida 45 Tennessee 20
South Carolina (2-7, 2-7 SEC) at Kentucky (3-6, 3-6 SEC)
7:30 p.m. ET • SEC Network
Lexington, Ky. • Kroger Field (61,000)
Series: SC leads, 18-12-1
Last: SC, 24-7 (2019 in Columbia)
Sirius: 137 • XM: 380/190
Point Spread: Kentucky -11 ½
Vince’s View: South Carolina has been decimated with a disappointing start, a coaching change, injuries and opt-outs. The Gamecocks have shown fight, but the team is undermanned. More was expected of Kentucky, but the offense, especially the passing game has been brutal. UK should South Carolina over a bunch and maybe even score on defense to pull away. Take the under with 46 ½, if you care about that stuff.
Score Prediction: Kentucky 24 South Carolina 10
#1 Alabama (8-0, 8-0 SEC) at LSU (3-4, 3-4 SEC)
8 p.m. ET • CBS
Baton Rouge, La. • Tiger Stadium (102,321)
Series: UA, 53-26-5
Last: LSU, 46-41 (2019 in Tuscaloosa)
Sirius: 84/81 XM: 84/81
Point Spread: Alabama -29 1/2
Vince’s View: There’s not much to say about this one once you look at LSU’s 121st ranked pass defense being tasked to try and stop one of the nation’s most prolific passing and overall offenses in the country. It’s staggering how much LSU has fallen off from last year’s national championship. LSU is almost 30 point home underdogs. Per VegasInsider, tha last time LSU was this big of a home dog was vs. FSU in 1991. Also, LSU is the biggest underdog by a defending national champion in the last 40 years.
Score Prediction: Alabama 52 LSU 17
Open: Ole Miss (4-4, 4-4 SEC); Mississippi State (2-6, 2-6 SEC) Vanderbilt (0-8, 0-8 SEC) #8 Georgia (6-2, 6-2 SEC)
The last two weekends of games are far from set even though the SEC has a plan. There’s a chance that the final two Tennessee games could be lost as well. With Vanderbilt having COVID-19 issues preventing them from playing at Georgia this week, that could extend into next week. The league also said that if Texas A&M had already clinched a spot in the SEC title game that the game would be canceled and considered a no-contest, since that game is on the same day as the SEC Championship. That would be the case for the rescheduled Vanderbilt/Georgia game December 19, if Georgia has clinched the East.
See the SEC’s full release, including the schedule the next two weeks below.
SEC ANNOUNCES FOOTBALL SCHEDULE FOR DECEMBER 12 AND 19
BIRMINGHAM, Alabama (December 4, 2020) – The Southeastern Conference has announced a schedule for football games to be played on December 12 and December 19 as a result of game postponements during the 2020 season due to the impact of COVID-19.
This rescheduling of games allows for the continued opportunity for all 14 SEC teams to each play ten games in the 2020 season. The revised schedule is contingent on the absence of additional postponements prior to December 12.
Prior to the 2020 season, December 12 was designated as an open date for all schools in order to reschedule postponements that developed during the season due to the impact of COVID-19. December 19 is the date of the SEC Football Championship Game to be played in Atlanta’s Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Teams that do not qualify for the championship game are eligible to play rescheduled games on December 19.
Schedule of SEC Football Games for December 12:
LSU at Florida (rescheduled from October 17)
Auburn at Mississippi State (rescheduled from November 14)
Georgia at Missouri (rescheduled from November 14)
Ole Miss at Texas A&M (rescheduled from November 21)
Tennessee at Vanderbilt (rescheduled from November 28)
Alabama at Arkansas (rescheduled from December 5)
Schedule of SEC Football games for December 19:
Texas A&M at Tennessee (rescheduled from November 14)*
Ole Miss at LSU (rescheduled from December 5)
Missouri at Mississippi State (rescheduled from December 5)
Vanderbilt at Georgia (rescheduled from December 5)#
SEC Football Championship, Atlanta, 8 pm ET/7 pm CT
*Should Texas A&M qualify for the SEC Championship Game on December 19, the Texas A&M at Tennessee game would be declared a no-contest and Texas A&M would represent the Western Division in the SEC title game.
#Should Georgia qualify for the SEC Championship Game on December 19, the Vanderbilt at Georgia game would be declared a no-contest and Georgia would represent the Eastern Division in the SEC title game.
The SEC’s COVID-19 management requirements, as developed by the SEC’s Return to Activity and Medical Guidance Task Force, are available on SECsports.com. (full report).
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