Vince’s View: SEC Week 5 score predictions including Vols at Tigers with analysis

By Vince Ferrara / @VinceSports

Below are my Week 5 SEC football predictions.

This season, I’m sharing my picks both against the spread and straight-up.

Check back on my “Vince’s View” blog page for future posts including weekly SEC football and NFL game predictions. Bookmark my blog page and check back often.

Week 4 Straight-Up Record: 6-2 (75%)
Week 4 vs. Spread Record: 4-4 (50%)
2021 Season Straight-Up Record: 38-9 (81%)
2021 Season Straight-Up Record: 25-22 (53%)
2020 SEC Season Prediction Record Straight-Up: 66-12 (85%)

GAINESVILLE, FL – September 25, 2021 – Quarterback Hendon Hooker #5 of the Tennessee Volunteers during the game between the Florida Gators and the Tennessee Volunteers at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium in Gainesville, FL. Photo By Andrew Ferguson/Tennessee Athletics

SEC OPENS OCTOBER WITH SIX CONFERENCE GAMES

SATURDAY, OCTOBER 2
#8 Arkansas (4-0, 1-0 SEC) at #2 Georgia (4-0, 2-0 SEC)
Athens, Ga. • Sanford Stadium (92,746)
Noon ET • ESPN
Series: UGA leads, 11-4
Last: UGA, 37-10 (2020 at Fayetteville)
ESPN: Chris Fowler, Kirk Herbstreit, Holly Rowe
Touchdown Radio: Brett Dolan, Gino Torretta
Sirius: 121/81 • XM: 191/81
Point Spread: Georgia -16.5
Vince’s View: I’ve been so impressed by how hard Arkansas plays and how well coached that team is in all phases, getting the most of their roster. Georgia’s defense is too good and that team is a new level of talent.
Vince’s Pick vs. the line: Arkansas +16.5
Score Prediction: Georgia 30 Arkansas 14

Tennessee (2-2, 0-1 SEC) at Missouri (2-2, 0-1 SEC)
Columbia, Mo. • Faurot Field (62,621)
Noon ET • SEC Network
Series: MIZ leads, 5-4
Last: UT, 35-12 (2020 at Knoxville)
SECN: Dave Neal, Deuce McAllister, Andraya Carter
Sirius: 103/132 • XM: 192/190
Point Spread: Missouri -2.5
Vince’s View: Hendon Hooker is expected to start for the Vols. The offense has been better with him. Will he be limited in the run game coming off of the injury that forced him out of the Florida game last week? Running the ball is going to be necessarily for UT, probably needing over 250 rush yards. Mizzou gives up an average of 270 yards per game on the ground. It should not just be yards, but attempts with the commitment to the run.

The Vols defense needs to be aware of where RB Tyler Badie is at all times. He’s Mizzou’s leading rusher and receiver. Badie is 5 receiving yards away from being the first player in program history with 1,000 career rushing and receiving yards. He averages 150 all-purpose yards per game, which is about 1/3 of Mizzou’s 483 yards of offense per game.

I think this game will be wild and high-scoring. This is a game where we will learn more about this coaching staff’s ability to scheme their way around deficiencies, weaknesses and injuries to find a way to get the most out of this team.

This game is also a culture test. If it’s as good as the players say it is this year, then the players will clean-up the penalties, the drops and the lack of focus that some of the players mentioned from the loss to the Gators. This roster isn’t good enough to keep having to overcome piles of mistakes.

Vince’s Pick vs. the line: Tennessee +2.5
Score Prediction: Tennessee 34 Missouri 31

#12 Ole Miss (3-0, 0-0 SEC) at #1 Alabama (4-0, 1-0 SEC)
Tuscaloosa Ala. • Bryant-Denny Stadium (101,821)
3:30 p.m. ET • CBS
Series: UA leads, 52-10-2
Last: UA, 63-48 (2020 in Oxford)
CBS: Brad Nessler, Gary Danielson
Compass Media Radio: T.J. Rives, Steve Beuerlein
Sirius: 121/81 • XM: 191/81
Point Spread: Alabama -14.5
Vince’s View: I’m going with Ole Miss to shock the world in a season of big upsets. I realize former Saban assistants are 0-for-23 against him. Ole Miss is 0-for-13 vs. AP #1 teams. I get all the numbers. Lane Kiffin knows Alabama so well and has an extra week (and I’m sure much more than that) to prepare.

Matt Corral is the best QB in the country. Dual threat QBs are the ones that at times give the Tide some issues. The Rebels have weapons in so many different skill spots.

The Rebels defense is improved from last season led by MLB Chance Campbell and DE Sam Williams.

A high scoring game where Alabama doesn’t have balance on offense will put a lot on Bryce Young’s shoulders.

The few times Alabama loses in the regular season, those more often come at home to teams with great quarterbacks. Don’t get me wrong, I think Alabama will the best team at season’s end. This is a one week perfect storm pick.

Vince’s Pick vs. the line: Ole Miss +14.5
Score Prediction: Ole Miss 42 Alabama 38

Troy (2-2) at South Carolina (2-2, 0-2 SEC)
Columbia, S.C. • Williams-Brice Stadium (77,559)
3:30 p.m. ET • SEC Network
Series: SC leads, 3-0
SECN: Taylor Zarzour, Matt Stinchcomb, Alyssa Lang
Sirius: 132 • XM: 190
Point Spread: South Carolina -6.5
Vince’s View: The Gamecocks don’t have the roster to win many SEC games, but SC should have enough to beat the Trojans.
Vince’s Pick vs. the line: South Carolina -6.5
Score Prediction: South Carolina 20 Troy 10

#10 Florida (3-1, 1-1 SEC) at Kentucky (4-0, 2-0 SEC)
Lexington, Ky. • Kroger Field (61,000)
6 p.m. ET • ESPN
Series: UF leads, 53-18
Last: UF, 34-10 (2020 at Gainesville)
ESPN: Bob Wischusen, Dan Orlovsky, Kris Budden
Sirius: 106/103 • XM: 235/182
Point Spread: Florida -7.5
Vince’s View: I think Kentucky will do the best job against the Florida run game this season, but the Gators will still get points and pull away late.
Vince’s Pick vs. the line: Florida -7.5
Score Prediction: Florida 31 Kentucky 21

Mississippi State (2-2, 0-1 SEC) at #15 Texas A&M (3-1, 0-1 SEC)
College Station, Texas • Kyle Field (102,733)
7 p.m. ET • SEC Network
Series: Tied 7-7
Last: TAMU, 28-14 (2020 at Starkville)
SECN: Tom Hart, Jordan Rodgers, Cole Cubelic
Sirius: 81 • XM: 388/81
Point Spread: Texas A&M -7.5
Vince’s View: Miss State is inconsistent and Texas A&M has underachieved. The Aggies should be refocused and committed to the run game coming off the loss to Arkansas.
Vince’s Pick vs. the line: Texas A&M -7.5
Score Prediction: Texas A&M 28 Mississippi State 14

UConn (0-5) at Vanderbilt (1-3, 0-1 SEC)
Nashville, Tenn. • Vanderbilt Stadium (40,350)
7:30 p.m. ET • ESPNU
Series: VU leads, 2-1
ESPNU: Brian Custer, Kelly Stouffer
Sirius: 121 • XM: 191
Point Spread: Vanderbilt -14.5
Vince’s View: This is ugly. You’re welcome.
Vince’s Pick vs. the line: Vanderbilt -14.5
Score Prediction: Vanderbilt 31 UConn 14

#22 Auburn (3-1, 0-0 SEC at LSU (3-1, 1-0 SEC)
Baton Rouge, La. • Tiger Stadium (102,321)
9 p.m. ET • ESPN
Series: LSU leads, 31-23-1
Last: AU, 48-11 (2020 at Auburn)
ESPN: Joe Tessitore, Greg McElroy, Katie George
ESPN Radio: Sean Kelley, Barrett Jones, Ian Fitzsimmons
Sirius: 138/132 • XM: 202/190
Point Spread: LSU -3
Vince’s View: The quarterback position is the difference in this one. Max Johnson has been excellent. Auburn’s QB situation is up in the air and not great.
Vince’s Pick vs. the line: LSU -3
Score Prediction: LSU 35 Auburn 17