By Jimmy Hyams
As Tennessee approaches Year 2 under Josh Huepel, the Vol Nation is excited about the prospects of a potential second-place finish in the SEC East division.
Roman Harper of the SEC Network has even forecast the Vols will go 10-2, losing only to Alabama and LSU during the regular season and upsetting the defending national champions, Georgia.
The Vols surprised many last year by winning seven games and making a bowl game.
To surpass last year’s win total, the Vols must improve in several areas.
Here’s a look at what UT did last year and whether UT will better those stats.
Can UT score 39.3 points per game again this season?
In the second year of Josh Heupel’s system, the Vols should be just as productive as Year One.
Hendon Hooker figures to be the second-best quarterback in the SEC. Cedric Tillman will likely catch over 70 passes. Running back Jabari Small, if he can stay healthy, can crack 1,000 rushing yards, if not 1,200. The offensive line returns four starters.
And while you might think defenses could catch up to UT’s attack, the Vols face only three defensive coordinators that they played against last year.
Look for Tennessee to score at least 30 points in all but three games. Look for the Vols to score at least 40 in seven games.
That will allow UT to average more than 39.3 points per game and set another school record for points scored.
Can UT average 217.8 rushing yards per game?
When people think of an uptempo, spread offense, they think pass, pass, pass.
But UT has a run-first scheme, which sets up the pass game.
The Vols averaged almost 220 rush yards per game last season. They did it without a back gaining over 800 yards. They did it when their best back, Tiyan Evans, quit the team in November. They did it without a great offensive line. But they also did it because Hooker ran for 616 net yards.
UT would like for Hooker to run less, which makes sense against the lesser opponents on the schedule.
Jabari Small gained about 12 pounds in the offseason to help his stamina, strength and availability. He was banged up several times last year.
Jalyen Wright, freshmen Dylan Sampson and Justin Williams-Thomas should provide UT with enough depth to average even more yards than a year ago.
Three keys will be (1) staying healthy (2) converting in short-yardage situations and (3) success in the four-minute offense.
Will UT average 474.9 total yards?
Tennessee will average 14 to 16 possessions per game. That’s two to four more series than most teams.
That will allow UT to rack up more yards. But the key is balance.
UT averaged 217.8 rush yards per game last year and 257.1 passing.
That’s strikes the balance you want.
Look for UT to average over 220 on the ground, 270 in the air and 490 total – which will rank among the top three in the SEC.
The total will rank among the top three in the SEC.
Can UT improve on allowing 421.7 total yards per game?
No defense will post great numbers with an uptempo offense on the other side.
The barometer isn’t allowing 14 points or less than 300 yards per game. It’s making a stop when you
have to, protecting a lead in the fourth quarter with a key sack or forced turnover.
Given that, don’t expect UT’s defense to rank among the top eight in the SEC (it was 11th last year).
The Vols will give right at 400 yards per game. The Vols will allow more than 24 points per game (after allowing 29.1 last year).
And the more the offense scores, the more the defense will allow. Why? Because opponents will be forced to throw more to catch up and UT will insert backups, thus skewing the defensive numbers.
The more pertinent defensive numbers to watch are what happens in the first half.
If UT can hold opponents to less than 14 points in the first half, that’s a win, especially for an offense that averaged over 14 points in the first quarter. Last year, UT allowed 16.6 points per game in the first half of the regular season.
Will third-down defense improve?
Tennessee allowed opponents to convert 42% on third down, ranking 13th in the SEC and 94th in the nation.
If that happens again, Tennessee won’t finish second in the East division and might not finish ranked in the top 25.
UT was better at stopping opponents when it was third-and-short. But when it was third-and-medium or third-and-long, the secondary got torched.
My biggest concern about UT’s team is cornerback. The corners were awful against Purdue in the Music City Bowl. And while UT has a lot of bodies from which to chose, I’m not sure how are SEC caliber.
The secondary could get a huge boost if defensive ends Byron Young, Tyler Baron and Roman Harrison
can mount a consistent four-man pass rush. That trio needs to combine for at least 22 sacks.
Short yardage offense
Tennessee’s offense doesn’t play complementary football. It tries to score and score as fast as possible.
That means the defense doesn’t get much rest and has to play a plethora of snaps. UT’s defense played over 100 snaps against Kentucky last season.
Hooker even apologized to the defense at times last year for scoring so quickly.
While the uptempo attack doesn’t give the defense a rest, there is one way the offense could help the defense: third-down conversions in short-yardage situations.
Offensive coordinator Alex Golesh said there is one way to correct that issue: Sign Eddie George.
But George isn’t available. He’s also 48.
So the Vols must rely on the backs at hand.
A power back would help. So would a more physical offensive line. But coaches have bragged on the ability of Jabari Small, who hits the mesh point hard and keeps churning his legs. He might be the answer on third-and-1.
I’ll say UT does a better job this season of converting on third-and-short but not by a wide margin.
Sponsored by Big Kahuna Wings: The wings that changed it all (The BKW Festival is Sept. 4) http://www,bigkahunawings.com
