It’s mid-November and Tennessee football remains in the College Football Playoff hunt. I think mostly everybody who follows this team would have taken that back in the summer. Still, with a pair of three-point losses to teams ranked in the top 25, it’s easy to feel like the season could be even better.
Saturday is one of those games where you throw the records out the window and take the game for what it is: a challenging environment in College Station with a team littered with talent.
If Tennessee (7-2, 4-2 SEC) wants to keep the playoff conversation going into next week, here’s what it’ll focus on ahead of Texas A&M (4-5 1-5 SEC). The fact is, the playoffs have already begun for the Vols.
It’s never easy on the road
I guess that’s not always true, but for the most part, it’s just tough to win on the road in college football and especially in the Southeastern Conference. Home field advantage is a real thing – just look at Neyland Stadium in games vs. Alabama and Kentucky. The Aggie ‘12th Man’ must be a factor for a home upset over the Vols and Tennessee needs to give it reason for a no-show.
The Vols struggled on the road at Arkansas and needed a strong fourth quarter to clinch a touchdown win on the road over the worst team in the league. Tennessee fell behind 14-0 early at South Carolina before 21 second quarter points took control of the football game. But penalties doomed the Vols in Columbia, just as it could have in Atlanta back in Week 2 if Georgia Tech had any pulse.
For a team that beams plenty of NFL talent, there’s not a lot to play for in Aggie Land right now. If Tennessee plays clean and gets off to a hot start, Texas A&M could fold.
A game of defense
Tennessee’s defense is one of the best in the country, but don’t overlook the Texas A&M defense under head coach Mike Elko. The Aggies are kept in games thanks to the squad and statistically, show well in most areas.
Texas A&M is fifth in the conference in scoring defense (18.7) and sixth in total defense (320 yards per game). The Aggies are solid against the pass, ranking sixth at 190 yards an outing.
The 31 percent third down stop rate is second-best in the conference and the 52 percent defensive redzone touchdown rate is fantastic. Opponents are getting to the Texas A&M 20-yard line – but they score touchdowns roughly half the time.
It’s weird for a defense to be as sound as it is yet rank dead last in the conference with only nine sacks. Tennessee’s offense line should be able to give young quarterback George MacIntyre plenty of time to get the pass game going – something that continues to hold the Volunteer offense back.
For as dreadful as the Texas A&M offense is, the defense isn’t bad.
Marcel Reed is struggling
One of the biggest reasons the Texas A&M offense has been dreadful this year is due to poor quarterback play of Marcel Reed. Reed, a senior from Middle Tennessee, has started most of the past three seasons and led the Aggies to the College Football Playoffs last year. Turnovers have been his downfall throughout his career and his eight interceptions this fall are on pace for a career-worst.
Reed is also completing passes at a career-worst 57 percent. He’s thrown just two touchdown passes since Week 3’s loss to Kentucky and he’s logged three games with two interceptions.
The athlete is also dangerous on the ground and that’s been an issue for this elite Tennessee defense. For as well as Jim Knowles’ group has played, it’s struggled defending running quarterbacks with Auburn’s Byrum Brown, Alabama’s Keelon Russell and South Carolina’s LaNorris Sellers all impacting the game with their legs.
Reed has rushed for 348 yards this season before sacks and scored three times on the ground. He boasted an 80-yard day with a rushing touchdown in the loss to Kentucky and added 66 yards and a score in a beatdown for Arkansas.
If Tennessee can keep Reed contained inside the pocket, the numbers suggest the defense will have a day.
The senior completes 60 percent of his passes from a clean pocket, which occurs on 70 percent of his drop backs. When Reed is faced with pressure (30 percent of drop backs), the completion percentage dips down to 46 percent. When the defense does not blitz Reed (66 percent of drop backs), he completes 62 percent of his passes whereas just 46 percent when blitzed (34 percent of drop backs).
Ironically, seven of Reed’s eight interceptions on the year have come from a clean pocket.
If Tennessee’s defense plays like it has the majority of the season, the Vols should have every chance to get the run game going offensively and ride out their eighth win of the season.
