AAA projects 72.2 million Americans will travel domestically during the Independence Day holiday period (Saturday, June 28 to Sunday, July 6). This represents an increase of 1.7 million travelers (2.4%) over last year and 7 million more than in 2019.
To better reflect holiday travel trends, AAA’s forecast now accounts for two weekends, capturing extended trips and varied departure schedules.
Tennessee Travel Trends
Tennessee travel is expected to reach historic levels, with 1.6 million Tennesseans hitting the road, skies, and rails – that’s up 30,000 (or 1.9%) from last year.
- Driving: Almost 1.5 million Tennesseans will take a road trip, an increase of 1.8% over last year.
- Flying: More than 72,000 Tennesseans will fly domestically, almost the same as last year.
- Other Modes: More than 73,000 Tennesseans will take buses, trains, or cruises, an increase of 5.5% compared to last year.
| Tennessee Independence Day Travelers | ||||
| Auto | Air | Other | Total | |
| 2025 | 1.5 million | 72,332 | 73,371 | 1.62 million |
| 2024 | 1.4 million | 72,073 | 69,540 | 1.59 million |
| 2019 | 1.3 million | 63,856 | 73,370 | 1.46 million |
“Independence Day is one of the most popular times for travel, with Americans eager to take advantage of summer vacation opportunities,” said Debbie Haas, Vice President of AAA Travel. “This year, we’re seeing strong demand for road trips, flights, and cruises, especially with the holiday falling on a Friday. This is allowing travelers to extend their getaways and make lasting memories with loved ones.”
How Americans Are Traveling This Independence Day
By Car:
AAA estimates 61.6 million Americans will drive—a 2.2% increase from last year and the highest number ever recorded. 1.3 million more road travelers are expected compared to 2024.
Drivers should prepare their vehicles in advance, as AAA responded to nearly 700,000 roadside assistance calls nationwide during last year’s holiday period for issues like dead batteries, flat tires, and empty gas tanks.
Gas prices are likely to fluctuate before Independence Day. Last week, oil prices surged in response to Israel’s strikes on Iran, increasing gasoline production costs. While analysts suggest this may be a short-term reaction, it’s too early to know whether prices will stabilize before the holiday. The national average is currently $3.21. That is approximately 24 cents per gallon less than last year’s holiday. Visit GasPrices.AAA.com for the latest gas price averages.
Road Trip Inspiration: Take a road trip to one of the 10 Best National Parks to Visit in Summer on AAA Trip Canvas.
By Air:
Air travel is reaching record-breaking numbers nationwide, with 5.84 million people flying, a 1.4% increase over last year’s previous high. This figure exclusively represents domestic leisure travel, counting complete round-trip itineraries as a single trip. This differs from TSA data, which tracks each individual airport screening separately and includes both domestic and international travel.
AAA data shows round-trip domestic flights averaging $810, up 4% from 2024. Travelers booking last-minute can find better deals by flying midweek (Tuesdays or Wednesdays).
Air Travel Inspiration: Need family-friendly ideas? Explore the 17 Best Vacation Spots for Families on AAA Trip Canvas.
By Other Modes:
Nearly 4.78 million people will travel by bus, train, or cruise, marking a 7.4% rise over last year. Cruising continues to fuel this growth, particularly in peak Alaska cruise season.
Cruise Inspiration: Check out the 9 Best Alaska Cruises for Every Traveler for your next adventure.
AAA’s Top Independence Day Destinations
AAA booking data reveals the most sought-after travel spots for July 4th:
| DOMESTIC | INTERNATIONAL |
| ORLANDO, FL | VANCOUVER, CANADA |
| SEATTLE, WA | ROME, ITALY |
| NEW YORK, NY | PARIS, FRANCE |
| ANCHORAGE, AK | LONDON, ENGLAND |
| FORT LAUDERDALE, FL | BARCELONA, SPAIN |
| HONOLULU, HI | DUBLIN, IRELAND |
| DENVER, CO | AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS |
| MIAMI, FL | CALGARY, CANADA |
| BOSTON, MA | ATHENS, GREECE |
| ATLANTA, GA | LISBON, PORTUGAL |
These destinations are based on AAA booking data for the Independence Day travel period. Cruises, beaches, and fireworks are the main motivators for travelers heading to these cities. Alaska cruises are in peak season, Florida and Hawaii are in high demand for their resorts and attractions, and New York and Boston host two of the most popular fireworks shows in the nation.
Internationally, Vancouver tops the list for its mild weather and perfect blend of urban excitement and natural beauty. This is followed by Europe’s most in-demand cities like Rome and Paris.
Best & Worst Times to Drive
According to INRIX, expect heavy road congestion on Wednesday, July 2 and Sunday, July 6. The busiest times will be afternoons, while mornings offer the best escape from traffic.
Ideal Travel Times:
- Worst hours: Afternoon to early evening
- Best hours: Early morning
Drivers should remain alert for construction delays, crashes, and severe weather. AAA reminds all motorists to Slow Down, Move Over for emergency responders assisting roadside travelers.
| Best and Worst Times to Travel by Car | ||
| Date | Worst Travel Time | Best Travel Time |
| Saturday, Jun 28 | 12:00 PM – 5:00 PM | Before 10:00 AM |
| Sunday, Jun 29 | 2:00 PM – 4:00 PM | Before 11:00 AM |
| Monday, Jun 30 | 2:00 PM – 6:00 PM | Before 12:00 PM |
| Tuesday, Jul 01 | 3:00 PM – 6:00 PM | Before 2:00 PM |
| Wednesday, Jul 02 | 12:00 PM – 9:00 PM | Before 12:00 PM |
| Thursday, Jul 03 | 2:00 PM – 6:00 PM | Before 12:00 PM |
| Friday, Jul 04 | 12:00 PM – 7:00 PM | Before 12:00 PM |
| Saturday, Jul 05 | 11:00 AM – 5:00 PM | Before 11:00 AM |
| Sunday, Jul 06 | 12:00 PM – 6:00 PM | Before 11:00 AM |
“We encourage travelers to consider purchasing travel insurance to protect their plans,” said Haas. “Unexpected disruptions like flight delays, lost luggage, or medical emergencies can turn a dream vacation into a stressful experience. Travel insurance provides peace of mind, ensuring you can enjoy your Independence Day getaway with confidence.”
Looking for a last-minute rental car, hotel, or flight? Visit AAA.com/travel to lock in your plans or connect with a AAA Travel Advisor for expert guidance on crafting a trip tailored to your interests.
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Holiday Forecast Methodology
Travel Forecast
In cooperation with AAA, S&P Global Market Intelligence (SPGMI) developed a unique methodology to forecast actual domestic travel volumes. The economic variables used to forecast travel for the current holiday are leveraged from SPGMI’s proprietary databases. These data include macroeconomic drivers such as employment, output, household net worth, asset prices including stock indices, interest rates, housing market indicators, and variables related to travel and tourism, including gasoline prices, airline travel, and hotel stays. AAA and SPGMI have quantified holiday travel volumes going back to 2000.
Historical travel volume estimates come from MMGY’s TRAVEL PERFORMANCE/MonitorSM. The PERFORMANCE/MonitorSM is a comprehensive study measuring the travel behavior of U.S. residents. MMGY contacts over 50,000 U.S. households each month to obtain detailed travel data, resulting in the unique ability to estimate visitor volume and spending, identify trends, forecast U.S. travel behavior and position brand, all after the trips have been taken.
The travel forecast is reported in person-trips. In particular, AAA and SPGMI forecast the total U.S. holiday travel volume and expected mode of transportation. The travel forecast presented in this report was prepared the week of May 19, 2025.
Because AAA holiday forecasts focus on domestic leisure travel only, comparisons to TSA passenger screening numbers should not be made. TSA data includes all passengers traveling on both domestic and international routes, whether traveling for work or leisure. Additionally, TSA screens passengers each time they enter secured areas of the airport, therefore each one-way trip is counted as a passenger tally. AAA focuses on person-trips, which include the full round-trip travel itinerary. As a result, direct comparisons of AAA forecast volumes and daily TSA screenings represent different factors.
Independence Day Holiday Travel Period
The Independence Day holiday travel period is defined as the nine-day period from Saturday, June 28 to Sunday, July 6. Historically, this holiday period included only one weekend. The expanded travel window was instituted starting in 2024 with historical results calculated back to 2019 using the new nine-day period.
About AAA
Started in 1902 by automotive enthusiasts who wanted to chart a path for better roads in America and advocate for safe mobility, AAA has transformed into one of North America’s largest membership organizations. Today, AAA delivers exceptional roadside assistance, helps travelers plan their dream vacations and adventures, offers exclusive member discounts and benefits, and provides trusted financial and insurance services – all to enhance the life journey of our 65+ million members across North America, including nearly 58 million in the United States. To learn more about all AAA offers or become a member, visit AAA.com.
About S&P Global
S&P Global (NYSE: SPGI) provides essential intelligence. We enable governments, businesses, and individuals with the right data, expertise, and connected technology so that they can make decisions with conviction. From helping our customers assess new investments to guiding them through ESG and energy transition across supply chains, we unlock new opportunities, solve challenges, and accelerate progress for the world. We are widely sought after by many of the world’s leading organizations to provide credit ratings, benchmarks, analytics, and workflow solutions in the global capital, commodity, and automotive markets. With every one of our offerings, we help the world’s leading organizations plan for tomorrow, today. For more information, visit www.spglobal.com.
About MMGY
MMGY Global is the world’s leading integrated marketing firm specializing in the travel, hospitality, and lifestyle industries. With operating brands around the world, the award-winning organization maintains a global communications practice in all marketing channels, serving many of the world’s premier travel and tourism brands. As a company dedicated to the travel industry, MMGY Global strives to create a connected, inclusive, and peaceful world by promoting travel as a cultural bridge of understanding. For more information, visit www.mmgyglobal.com.
About INRIX
Founded in 2004, INRIX pioneered intelligent mobility solutions by transforming big data from connected devices and vehicles into mobility insights. This revolutionary approach enabled INRIX to become one of the leading providers of data and analytics into how people move. By empowering cities, businesses, and people with valuable insights, INRIX is helping to make the world smarter, safer, and greener. With partners and solutions spanning across the entire mobility ecosystem, INRIX is uniquely positioned at the intersection of technology and transportation – whether it’s keeping road users safe, improving traffic signal timing to reduce delay and greenhouse gasses, optimizing last mile delivery, or helping uncover market insights. Learn more at INRIX.com.
Story courtesy of AAA.com.
