(Part two of a two-part series on Tennessee football. Part two focuses on defense.)

By Jimmy Hyams

The SEC East hasn’t won the SEC championship since 2008.

That might explain why the East has had only 14 teams record at least a 4-4 conference record over the past four seasons.

How did those 14 teams stack up defensively against SEC competition?

Thanks to the research of John Pennington with the Sports Source, we will tell you.

We will also tell you how Tennessee last season compared to those numbers and if the Vols can reach those stat lines this season.

Those 14 SEC East teams allowed 24.3 points per game in league play.

Tennessee surrendered 34.8 points per game in going 0-8 in the SEC last year.

The defenseless Vols gave up at least 40 points to four SEC teams (Georgia, Alabama, Missouri and Vanderbilt). They held just one team to fewer than 26 points (South Carolina).

Tennessee’s inept offense didn’t help matters, registering more than its share of three-and-outs and often putting the defense in harm’s way regarding field position.

Still, the injury plagued defense of coordinator Bob Shoop was, for the most part, awful.

It couldn’t hold late leads against Florida and Kentucky, gave up 92 combined points to Missouri and Vanderbilt and was humiliated on the ground by a non-SEC team, Georgia Tech, which rushed for an ungawdly 535 yards.

Tennessee’s defense has a chance to be much improved, in part because it should be better coached. And if it can stay relatively injury free, I can see the defense improving by a touchdown per game. And I can see the defense holding five teams (Georgia, Alabama, Kentucky, Missouri and Vanderbilt) under last year’s point total.

Holding SEC opponents to less than 30 points per game is a reasonable goal, but it falls short of what .500 or better East teams have done since 2014.

Those 14 teams allowed 162.7 rushing yards per game.

Tennessee gave up a whopping 262.0 last year in the SEC, and that doesn’t count the Georgia Tech avalanche.

Four SEC teams rushed for more than 270 yards last year (Georgia, Alabama, Kentucky and Missouri). Three others rushed for at least 190 (South Carolina, LSU, Vanderbilt).

Only Florida was held to less than 170 and the Gators got 168.

Tennessee is switching to a 3-4 front but don’t be misled. The Vols could run as much 4-3 as 3-4 and, frankly, I don’t think UT has the personnel to run a 3-4 more than 75 percent of the time.

If nose tackle Shy Tuttle and linebackers Darrin Kirkland Jr. and Daniel Bituli and safety Todd Kelly Jr. can stay healthy. And if Jonathan Kongbo and Nigel Warrior play up to their ability. And if UT can find some cornerbacks who can tackle, the run defense will be significantly better.

I would expect Georgia, Alabama and Auburn to exceed 200 rushing yards, and perhaps Missouri, which has averaged over 400 rushing yards in the last two games against UT.

UT must find a way to contain the ground games of Florida, South Carolina, Kentucky and Vanderbilt.

Trimming the run defense to 200 yards per game is doable. That’s 62 yards per game. Anything better would be a surprise.

The 14 East times that didn’t have a losing record the last four years allowed 207.4 passing yards per game.

Tennessee allowed 178.6 last year.

Talk about misleading stats. UT’s secondary wasn’t that good. It’s run defense was so poor, opponents didn’t have to pass.

For example, Georgia and Kentucky completed just seven passes. And opponents averaged 19.25 rushing first downs per game.

Moreover, UT’s secondary collected only five interceptions in 12 games.

Since I think UT’s run defense will again be susceptible and opponents won’t have to attempt 30 passes per game, I think UT’s pass defense will allow slightly more than 200 passing yards per game to SEC teams.

Bottom line: UT’s defense isn’t ready to play .500 ball in the SEC. Unless a bunch of “ifs’’ become reality.

My projection: UT goes 3-5 in SEC play.

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(Part one of a two-part series on Tennessee football.

Part one pertains to offense. Part two tomorrow will focus on defense.)

By Jimmy Hyams

Since 2014, only 14 teams from the SEC East Division have had a .500 record or better in conference play.

How have those teams done statistically? How many points did they score and allow? How many yards did they gain and surrender?

Thanks to the handy work of John Pennington with the Sports Source, we know.

Coming off an 0-8 SEC disaster, how does Tennessee compare?

Answer: Not favorably.

How close are the Vols to reaching the numbers of those .500 teams?

Let’s examine. First let’s look at the offense.

Over the past four years, those 14 teams who went at least 4-4 in the league averaged 27.6 points per game in SEC play only.

Tennessee averaged 14.1 last year.

Four times, UT scored 10 or fewer points (against Georgia, Alabama, South Carolina and LSU).

Two other times, the Vols scored 20 or less (Florida and Missouri).

Only twice did Butch Jones’ team exceed 20 points in a conference game (Kentucky, Vanderbilt).

This season, there’s a chance UT won’t score more than 10 points against Georgia, Alabama or Auburn.

The Vols should score more than 20 again against Kentucky and Vanderbilt.

That leaves Florida, Missouri and South Carolina. I could see the Vols getting at least 20 against two of those three teams, but not all three.

For UT to average 20 points in SEC games, it has to score 160 points. It scored 113 last year.

I could see a jump of a touchdown per game for Tennessee. In fact, averaging 20 points in league play is a reasonable goal.

But I think the Vols will fall well short of averaging 27.6 points in league play this fall.

SEC teams with at least a .500 conference mark the past four years averaged 188.4 rushing per game.

Tennessee averaged a miserable 108.8 rushing yards v. SEC foes last year. In three games, UT had fewer than 70 rushing yards (Georgia, Alabama, Vanderbilt). It rushed for at least 180 against three teams (Florida, Kentucky, LSU). It averaged 133 against South Carolina and Missouri.

Tennessee will be more run-oriented this season – or, at least, try to be. It doesn’t make a lot of sense to run if you’re down more than two touchdowns in the second half.

The Vols won’t run a hurry-up offense, will be more conscious of field position and will try to limit the number of possession in a game to 10 to 12, rather than 14 to 16. That would help protect the defense to a degree and result in lower scoring games.

But can UT’s offense line (overwhelmed at times last year) hold up in the power running scheme Jeremy Pruitt wants to implement?

UT will have trouble rushing for more than 100 yards against Georgia, Alabama and Auburn – and maybe Florida. It should exceed 150 against Kentucky, Missouri and Vanderbilt.

The net result: UT will average between 125 and 140 rushing yards per game in SEC play, about 50 yards per game short of the goal to get to .500.

SEC teams with at least a .500 mark the past four years averaged 198.0 passing per game.

Tennessee averaged 166.1 last year

Tennessee had three games in which it passed for fewer than 82 yards (Georgia, Alabama, LSU). It had less than 150 in two other games (South Carolina and Missouri). Only twice did it exceed 200 yards (Florida, Kentucky).

Tennessee should be a more efficient passing team this fall but don’t look for many 200-yard passing games. And while you might be forced to pass when behind in the second half in some games, you’re also more vulnerable to quarterback pressures and sacks.

Tennessee could average 30 more passing yards per game, which would put them close to 200 per game. But I’ve got them slightly below that.

Statistically speaking, Tennessee is at least a year away from being a .500 team in the SEC.

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